With Coinbase’s highly anticipated direct listing IPO expected to take place next month, options traders appear to be betting that Bitcoin will once more soar to new all-time highs within the upcoming weeks.
Earlier on 24th March, the founders of cryptocurrency analytics firm Glassnode tweeted data suggesting that options traders on p2p cryptocurrency derivatives exchange, Deribit, are loading abreast of contracts set to expire on 30th April with a strike price of $80k.
Contracts worth a notional value of 4,000 BTC are purchased targeting the price-point in total, above any other strike-price by a min. of 50%.
Should the worth be less than $80k at the end of April, the contracts will expire worthless, indicating high conviction that the Bitcoin markets are still an extended way from topping out among derivatives traders.
On the other hand, consistent with crypto derivatives data aggregator Skew, probability estimates supported market data for the 30th April contract suggest there’s just a 6.19% chance of BTC prices being above $80k when the positions mature.
Significant volume has also converged around the contracts with a strike price of $120k, meaning some traders believe the Bitcoin price will over double subsequent five weeks. Skew estimates it’s only 2.15% likely Bitcoin will reach $100k by the 30th April expiry date.
However, with many options traders building positions across multiple contracts bearing divergent strike prices, a number of the traders depending on $80k or $120k might not expect prices to urge that’s prime.
Skew’s data reveal that contracts for 30th April are presently the third-most-popular among options traders, with open interest currently equating to a notional value of 38,700 BTC.
The upcoming 21st June contracts rank second with 42,300 BTC worth of notional open interest, while 117,900 BTC worth of contracts or $6 Bln in notional value is about to expire on 26th March.
Despite the doorway of institutional derivatives exchange CME [Chicago Mercantile Exchange] into the Bitcoin options sector in January last year, Deribit still dominates options trade volume.
Skew estimates 91% of BTC options contracts traded within the past 24 hours changed hands on Deribit, followed by Bit.com with 5%, OKEx with 2%, & CME and LedgerX with roughly 1% each.