Bitcoin price has found resistance while trading 12% below its ATHs, but futures data suggests traders are still targeting $80k in Jan. 2022.
Choosing the right time for technical analysis is never easy, but in general, the longer the trend, the better the possibilities. Analysts of the three-month Bitcoin (BTC) chart, for example, will definitely see the rising channel pattern that began in late June.
Bears will continue to find methods to defend their positions, despite the fact that Bitcoin has set a new high following a 6.2% increase in US consumer prices, the largest in 30 years.
Long-term investors, meanwhile, have ceased accumulating and are now oscillating into cryptocurrencies, according to data from on-chain analytics startup Glassnode. Analyst Willian Clemente claims that the recent net sales from that group of investors were for the first time in six months, indicating a “strong sales” activity.
BTC/USD 1 Day Price Chart: Source- Coinmarketcap.com
It is worth noting that the Bitcoin network was upgraded on November 14 in order to boost writing and privacy abilities. From a commercial standpoint, this produces a “news-selling” event because the public is eagerly anticipating the development.
To understand how bullish or bearish traders rely on, one must examine the future’s base level. This index, often known as the future premium, evaluates the difference between future contracts and current market values in the local market.
In robust markets, an annual premium of 5%–15% is projected, a scenario is known as contango. This pricing disparity is due to retailers expecting more money in exchange for long-term compensation.
Take note of the 20 percent increase on November 9, as Bitcoin has gained 14 percent in three days. This brief time of overdose has been canceled because BTC is adjusting 9 percent after reaching a peak of $69,100 on November 10.
The base index is currently 12 percent healthy, indicating confidence in these traders.
The options markets must be examined in order to extract the external factors that are directly related to the future tool.
A delta skew of 25% compares the same call (buy) and set (sell) options. If panic is widespread, the metrics will be favorable because the premium for defensive storage options is higher than for comparable risk call options.
When greed is a common situation that causes a 25% delta skew index to convert to a negative one, the opposite is true.
A skew index between 8% (greed) and +8% (fear) is considered neutral. The last time this index appeared on this list was on September 29, when it reached + 10%. Surprisingly, that day marked the end of a 23-day bear run that saw Bitcoin fall from $52,700 on September 6 to $41,000.
The current neutrality of the 25% delta skew can be understood as “half-full glass,” because professional merchants are not concerned with a 95% profit margin for the year thus far.
According to the statistics, there is an opportunity for extra revenue from Bitcoin buyers, which might lead to the price remaining inside the increasing channel established in late June.