The “bitcoin misery index” created by Wall Street strategist Thomas Lee indicates this is a good time to buy bitcoin. Lee has not changed his midyear price target of $20,000 and his end year price target of $25,000 for bitcoin.
Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, told “Fast Money” Friday that when the bitcoin misery index falls below 27, bitcoin sees its best 12-month performance. Such a signal comes about every year, the strategist said.
Lowest Index Since September 2011
The index now stands at 18.8 on a scale of 100, making its lowest point since Sept. 6, 2011.
Lee said the index offers a way to measure how happy or said you are owning bitcoin.
The index is intended as a contrarian indicator. When it is low, investors should buy. When it is high, they should sell. The index accounts for the number of winning trades from the total trades. It also accounts for volatility.
At the end of last week, bitcoin’s price fell 24 percent from its Monday high following reports about rising regulatory scrutiny.
The low points signify pain, even though they are short-term signals. Long-term, Lee said the low points could point to a great entry way into bitcoin.
What Past Patterns Foretell
The last four times the index fell below 27 on the bitcoin misery index, bitcoin never failed to rise 12 months later, Lee said.
Last week was a tough one for bitcoin. A major Hong Kong exchange reported on Wednesday that some accounts might have been compromised. At the same time, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission increased its scrutiny of cryptocurrency wallets and exchanges. On Thursday, Japan suspended two cryptocurrency exchanges from operating for a month and called for business improvements at five other exchanges.
It was also reported Wednesday that the trustee of the now defunct Mt. Gox exchange sold about $400 million worth of bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash.
Bitcoin traded more than 3.5 percent lower Friday morning, around $8,900. While it remains more than 800 percent higher than where it was a year ago, it has lost more than 50 percent from its record high of more than $19,000 in mid-December.
Lee said it is very uncommon to be this unhappy owning bitcoin. The last such periods were November of 2012, September of 2016 and January of 2015.
In each case, bitcoin was higher in the following month.
Lee: Hold On One To Three Weeks
Lee said the index is telling people to wait it out for the next one or two or three weeks.
He is the only major Wall Street strategist to issue regular bitcoin reports and formal price targets. Prior to co-founding Fundstrat, he was chief equity strategist at J.P Morgan Case.
Lee maintained his midyear price target of $20,000 and his end year price target of $25,000 for bitcoin.